Consultores Internacionales, S.C.
   
Consultores Internacionales en Alianza con IMP Consultores y Vázquez Nava y Consultores, S.C.
 
 

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Economic Outlook 2015-2017
Prepared with data available on June 12, 2017.
 
 
  2015 2016 2017*
Real Sector

REA FIGURES

ESTIMATED FIGURES
Real GDP (growth %) 2.6 2.3 1.8 - 2.3
Inflation (Annual percentage variation %) 2.13 3.36 5.90 - 6.67
Core inflation (Annual percentage variation %) 2.41 3.44 5.11 - 5.91
IMSS workers (December vs. December) 644,446 732,591 690,811 - 740,621
Unemployment rate (Annual average, % of labor force) 4.4 3.88 3.64
Financial Markets  
Treasury bonds (Cetes) 28 days (period end, %) 3.1 5.61 7.25 - 7.75
Treasury bonds (Cetes) 28 days (period average, %) 3.0 4.2 6.63 - 6.65
Exchange rate (annual average) 1 15.87 18.69 19.28 - 19.64
Exchange rate (Year end) 1 17.07 20.62 19.00 - 19.80
International reserves (millions of dollars) 2 176,723 176,542  168,107 - 176,348
External Sector  
Exports (millions of dollars) 380,786 373,930 389,894 - 407,090
Imports (millions of dollars) 395,232 387,064 403,008 - 416,559
Remain Trade Balance  (millions of dollars) -14,460 -13,135 (13,113) - (9,468)
Foreign Direct Investment (millions of dollars) 33,181 26,739 21,860 - 24,580
Current Account (millions of dollars) -33,347 -27,858 (29,086) - (25,453)
Oil (Mexican mix, period average, dollars/barrel) 44.2 35.7 43.9 - 45.5
Remittances (millions of dollars) 24,770.9 26,970 26,746 - 28,926
USA GDP (real growth %) 2.6 1.6 1.9 - 2.4
 
 

* The estimates for 2017 are based on the following assumptions: Abroad (i) The start of the NAFTA review for the third quarter of the year, according to the new US Commerce Secretary, with potential effects until 2018. (ii) The normalization of monetary policy in the US. (iii) The extension of oil production cuts by OPEC.
Internally, the improvement in the economic forecasts of the SHCP and Banco de México, which raises its growth expectations for Mexico, stands out for the first time since 2011.
As a result of the first quarter GDP growth (2.8%), there is a slight increase in the annual result: from 1.8 to 2.3%. With a slight increase in formal employment (effect of company control).
On the part of Banco de México, the continuation of currency hedging mechanisms and the realization of auctions of Cetes for monetary regulation purposes in the amount of up to 17.950 million pesos, among others.
1. Exchange rate to settle obligations in dollars.
2. The balance in international reserves is expected to continue because BANXICO will adjust domestic rates to promote savings, rather than to use reserves in situations of impact.
Based on data from the “Tlacaélel Macroeconomic Model” realized with information from Banco de México, INEGI, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Labor and Social Security, International Monetary Fund, BEA and NYMEX.
Prepared with data available on June 12, 2017.