Consultores Internacionales, S.C.
   
Consultores Internacionales en Alianza con IMP Consultores y Vázquez Nava y Consultores, S.C.
 
 

Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

Get Adobe Flash player

 
 
Economic Outlook 2015-2017
Prepared with data available on September 13th, 2017. 12:12 pm
 
 
  2016 2017* 2018*
Real Sector

REAL FIGURES

ESTIMATED FIGURES ESTIMATED FIGURES
Real GDP (growth %) 2.3 1.9 - 2.4 2.1 - 2.6
Inflation (Annual percentage variation %) 3.36 6.10 - 6.60 4.50 - 5.05
Core inflation (Annual percentage variation %) 3.44 5.06 - 5.72 5.34 - 5.55
IMSS workers (December vs. December) 732,591 660,629 - 729,261 674,275 - 746,522
Unemployment rate (Annual average, % of labor force) 3.88 3.44 3.40
Financial Markets  
Treasury bonds (Cetes) 28 days (period end, %) 5.59 7.20 - 7.51 7.10 - 7.72
Treasury bonds (Cetes) 28 days (period average, %) 4.2 6.67 - 6.74 7.42 - 7.72
Exchange rate (Year end) 1 20.52 17.86 - 18.71 18.43 - 18.99
Exchange rate (annual average) 1 18.69 18.62 - 18.83 17.97 - 18.81
International reserves (millions of dollars) 2 176,542  170,945 - 177,430 173,287 - 178,743
External Sector  
Exports (millions of dollars) 373,930 385,061 - 410,041 419,537 - 440,143
Imports (millions of dollars) 387,064 394,357 - 418,615 430,439 - 444,034
Remain Trade Balance  (millions of dollars) -13,135 (9,296) - (8,574)  (10,902) - (3,891) 
Foreign Direct Investment (millions of dollars) 28,964 23,498 - 26,832 25,905 - 28,156
Current Account (millions of dollars) -27,858 (22,925) - (20,646) (26,253) - (21,836)
Oil (Mexican mix, period average, dollars/barrel) 35.7 44.4 - 45.3 49.1 - 54.3
Remittances (millions of dollars) 26,970 27,924 - 29,066 24,815 - 27,885
USA GDP (real growth %) 1.6 2.0 - 2.4 1.9 - 2.3
 
 

* Assumptions: In Mexico, economic policy continues with the objective of providing macroeconomic stability and sustainability in public finances.
* The moderate performance of the domestic market is maintained. The gradual recovery of external demand in US manufacturing sectors. There are no drastic changes in the renegotiation of NAFTA
* There are no drastic changes in the renegotiation of NAFTA. *The normalization of monetary policy by the Fed in the US is gradual.

1. Exchange rate FIX to settle obligations in dollars.
2. The balance in international reserves is expected to continue because BANXICO will adjust domestic rates to promote savings, rather than to use reserves in situations of impact.

Based on data from the Tlacaélel Macroeconomic Model from information by Banco de México, INEGI, Ministry of Finance, Secretariat of Energy, Ministry of Labor and Social Security, International Monetary Fund, BEA and NYMEX. Prepared with data available on September 13th, 2017. 12:12 pm